Petrol Could Drop to N900/Litre If US-Iran Peace Deal Holds, Market Says

Petrol prices in Nigeria could fall to around N900 per litre if a proposed US-Iran peace agreement is implemented and global crude oil prices keep declining.

The expectation follows fresh developments in the Middle East, where a ceasefire framework and plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed international oil prices down in recent days.

Crude climbed above $100 per barrel during the conflict, with some spikes beyond $120. That drove Nigeria’s petrol price from about N830/litre to N1,300/litre. Diesel and aviation fuel also rose sharply, pressuring businesses and transporters.

Industry operators say the crude price drop could reflect in domestic fuel costs since crude is the main input for refined products.

*Refiners eyeing cuts*  

Local refiners, including Dangote Petroleum Refinery, may review prices if the trend holds. The refinery cut its petrol loading price from N1,275/litre to N1,250/litre after crude softened, and also reduced diesel.

A source at the refinery said another cut is possible if the market stays stable, but noted crude bought at higher prices is still being processed, which could slow immediate reductions.

“Petrol selling at N900 per litre is achievable if global oil prices continue to decline and the market fully adjusts,” the source said.

*Marketers optimistic*  

The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, PETROAN, said prices could fall below N1,000/litre once the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully and crude returns to pre-conflict levels.

“Nigerians paid around N800 per litre before the crisis escalated. The market could gradually move back toward that range if peace is maintained,” the association said.

US President Donald Trump announced a peace arrangement with Iran is underway, with both countries expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to restore smoother oil supply.

Checks across the downstream sector show some marketers have already cut ex-depot prices below the current benchmark, signalling another round of competition.