Democrats Show Early Enthusiasm Edge Over Republicans a Month to Election

Election Day is still a month away, yet more than 700,000 Americans have already voted across at least 30 states, and early data points to a Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has been consistent in polling all summer.

In several states with key Senate and governor races, Democrats make up a larger share of voters requesting ballots than they did at this point in 2024.

In Iowa, Democrats account for 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it’s 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine 57%, up from 53%. In North Carolina, according to the State Board of Elections, 42% of requests are from Democrats, up from 36% two years ago.

It is worth noting that in all of those states except Iowa, ballot requests were even more Democratic at this point in 2022 than they are now.

The uptick would be in line with polling, special election results and primary turnout, all of which have indicated Democrats may be more motivated to vote this November. It could also reflect Republicans continuing to shift away from mail voting toward other methods.

While the fact that a person has voted is generally public, your ballot is secret. This data cannot tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won. That will not be known until results are reported after polls close on November 3.

Early voting data also captures only one slice of the electorate — one that typically skews older and less Republican.

Voting patterns have shifted since the COVID-19 pandemic. As mail voting fell from its 2020 highs, voters 65 and older have made up a larger share of mail voters — from 27% in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN Exit Poll data.

That is not unexpected. Mail voting can be more convenient for older voters, and in many states age itself qualifies as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot.

Early signs suggest that trend is continuing. In nearly every state with comparable data, voters 65 and older make up a larger share of ballot requests this year than at this point in either 2022 or 2024.

Perhaps the most positive signs for Democrats so far come from Virginia, which has reported both the most total votes in CNN’s count and is the only state with substantial numbers of both early in-person and mail votes.

While Virginia voters do not register by party, there is a clear relationship between how a locality voted in 2024 and its pace of early voting.

Cities and counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 20 points are at 78% of their turnout from this time in 2024, while those that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points are at just 61%.

Partisan turnout measured by voters who have only participated in one party’s primaries since 2022 also points to a considerable Democratic advantage compared to the same point in 2024.

That said, Republican voters could close the gap as Election Day nears. Virginians cast over 4.5 million votes in 2024 and over 3.4 million in 2025. The Senate race in Virginia is not expected to be competitive, and Republican voters may be more motivated in more contested races.

Still, two competitive House races suggest a move toward Democrats in enthusiasm.

Democratic primary participants outnumber Republicans by 15 points among votes cast so far in the 1st District and 18 points in the 2nd District. Both are battlegrounds held by Republicans facing tough challenges: Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st and Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd.

At the same point in 2024, the composition was relatively even — Republican primary voters led by about 3 points in the 1st District and Democratic primary voters led by 2 points in the 2nd. Statewide, Democratic primary participants now outpace Republicans by about 18 points, up from 8 points at the same point in 2024.

Early vote data is compiled by CNN, the Associated Press and the data firm Catalist, which provides data and analytics to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups.

The number of votes cast so far is a tiny fraction of the roughly 57 million pre-election votes cast in 2022 and an even smaller share of the roughly 112 million votes cast overall in that election, but is expected to grow substantially in the coming weeks.

The data so far is also largely limited to mail ballots, as very few states have started significant early in-person voting. In recent years mail voters have been much more Democratic, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican-leaning.