EARLY RAIN, DEADLY WINDS: Understanding and Surviving Southwest Nigeria’s Seasonal Windstorm Menace By Rafiu Babatunde Ibrahim (PhD)

PREAMBLE

The first raindrops of the year in Southwest Nigeria are often greeted with joy. After months of Harmattan dust and scorching sun, the cool breeze and darkening skies bring hope for farmers, relief for households, and the promise of a new planting season. But for too many communities across Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, and Lagos, those same clouds carry a hidden terror.

Between February and April each year, a familiar tragedy unfolds. The sky darkens abruptly. The temperature drops. A sudden, violent wind sweeps through neighbourhoods with little warning. Within minutes, roofs are torn away, ancient trees crash onto homes, power lines are ripped down, and families are left traumatised. In the worst cases, lives are lost.

This is not a spiritual attack. It is not an act of God that we must passively endure. It is a predictable, scientifically well-understood meteorological event. And the most painful truth is this: it is largely preventable, or at least survivable-with the right knowledge, preparation, and community action.

THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE DESTRUCTION

What we popularly call “early rain windstorm” is scientifically known as a “cold pool wind gust”, a direct consequence of thunderstorm activity during the pre-monsoon and early monsoon phases. The mechanism is straightforward. As the dry Harmattan winds retreat northward, moisture-laden south-westerly winds from the Atlantic Ocean begin to push inland. This collision of warm, humid air with residual dry air creates atmospheric instability. Thunderstorms develop, and with them, cold pools-dense, cooled air that sinks rapidly and spreads out violently upon hitting the ground.

When this occurs, the observable signs are unmistakable: a sudden change in wind direction, a simultaneous drop in temperature, a sharp rise in wind speed, and fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and humidity. These are not ordinary winds. They are capable of flattening buildings and turning farmland into debris fields within minutes.

Scientific investigations of windstorm events in Southwest Nigeria-such as the May 2019, March 2020, April, 2025 and February 2026 outbreaks-confirmed that affected communities experienced all these signature conditions. The presence of extensive cloud shields, lightning activity, and concurrent rainfall confirmed that these were not isolated gusts but organised thunderstorm systems. The critical problem, however, is not that these storms occur. It is that we are not ready for them.

A PATTERN OF RUIN, A PATTERN OF NEGLECT

In recent years, early rainfall accompanied by windstorms has caused significant destruction across Southwest Nigeria, with Osun and Oyo States recording particularly devastating incidents. In Osun State, a February 2024 windstorm destroyed over 130 buildings across Iwo and Iwoye communities, including eight classrooms at St. Mary’s Grammar School, the principal’s office, four classrooms at Government Technical College, a storey building of eight classrooms at the School for Islamic Propagation, the Oluwo Central Mosque, and the Iwo Customary Court, while also causing a four-day blackout after destroying approximately 40 concrete electricity poles. Earlier in February 2024, a NEMA assessment documented properties worth millions of naira destroyed across six communities in Ife-East and Ife-Central Local Government Areas, including residential buildings, shops, silos, schools, worship centers, and a town hall. In March 2025, a rainstorm at Odo-Ori Market in Iwo LGA stripped the roof off a block of ten shops, destroying foodstuff businesses and landing debris on adjacent kiosks, while another storm in March 2025 destroyed electricity poles and damaged houses and shops in Ilesa and Egbedore South LGA. In May 2024, Eripa community in Boluwaduro LGA suffered extensive damage to residential buildings, churches, mosques, and the Community High School, with trees uprooted and electrical poles destroyed. The incident of windstorm destruction at Osun State University in April 2025 cannot be forgotten easily.

In Oyo State, July 2025 witnessed a catastrophic windstorm in Igboho community, Oorelope LGA, where close to 500 houses were destroyed along with transformers and electrical installations, rendering thousands homeless. In April 2024, a rainstorm in Iresa Apa community, Surulere LGA, affected approximately 1,300 persons, destroying properties worth millions of naira including shops and schools, displacing residents, and devastating livelihoods.

In Lagos State, early rainfall windstorms have caused devastating destruction in recent years, most notably in August 2025 when a severe storm accompanied by heavy flooding wreaked havoc across the cities. In Abule-Egba, an Internet server mast collapsed onto nearby buildings, injuring one person, while numerous homes had their roofs blown off, forcing residents to flee-including a family whose ceiling caved in on them and whose roof was carried away to a neighboring house, destroying all their electronic gadgets and furniture. Beyond Abule-Egba, buildings were damaged in Agege and scores of houses affected in Onipanu, while part of the roof of a popular eatery in Ketu was destroyed. In July 2024, a 10-hour rainfall flooded Lekki and Ikoyi, forcing residents to flee luxury mansions as reptiles emerged in the floodwaters, with properties worth millions damaged or destroyed-including a woman who lost everything in a N3.5 million-per-year apartment she had occupied for less than a year. In June 2024, floods devastated Jakande Estate in Eti-Osa LGA, affecting 2,000 persons and causing many structures to collapse, rendering occupants homeless, while markets, schools, hospitals, religious centers, and a police station were submerged along with their operational vehicles. In July 2024, a heavy rainstorm in Mushin caused a two-story building collapse from which seven people were rescued. Across Iyana-Oworo, Olopo Meji, Alapere, Bariga, and Ikorodu, roads became impassable, workers were stranded for hours, and countless homes and shops were flooded, with residents using canoes to navigate flooded streets in some areas.

In March 2025, Ondo State experienced severe devastation in Akure North Local Government Area, where a rainstorm destroyed over 20 houses, churches, shops, and a primary school, with the Redeem Christian Church in Ilu Abo particularly hard-hit as its roofing sheets and ceiling were blown off.

Similarly, in April 2025, Ekiti State witnessed extensive damage in Ado-Ekiti, where a three-hour storm destroyed properties worth millions of naira, including multiple residential buildings-such as the six-room house of 80-year-old Pa Arowolo Ajangbonlo and the eight-room family house of another octogenarian, Pa Amusan Alaketu-as well as government buildings, churches, farms, and even the mast of a private radio station which collapsed onto the residence of former Governor Kayode Fayemi.

Ogun State has been experiencing early rain destruction in recent years, with flash floods causing significant damage to properties and goods. In February 2026, a sudden torrential rain in Sango, Ijoko, and Ijako areas of Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area resulted in a flash flood that submerged five vehicles and destroyed goods worth millions of Naira. The Commissioner for Environment, Ola Oresanya, attributed the flood to the sudden rain and blocked drainage systems. The state government has been taking proactive measures to mitigate flooding, including de-silting rivers and streams, constructing concrete drainages, and issuing flood alerts.

These incidents, affecting numerous communities across the Southwest, have rendered numerous families homeless, destroyed livelihoods, and repeatedly disrupted education and community life, underscoring the region’s growing vulnerability to extreme weather events during the early rainy season.

WHAT WE ARE GETTING WRONG

For years, our response to windstorm disasters has followed the same tired pattern. After every storm, we see the familiar images: emergency officials distributing bags of rice, cartons of spaghetti, and bottles of vegetable oil, etc., to bereaved and displaced families. The beneficiaries smile for the cameras and express gratitude.

But if you listen closely to what they actually say, the message is different. They do not ask for food. They ask for roofing sheets. They ask for cement. They ask for nails and timber. They ask for the means to rebuild, not just to survive another day.

This is not disaster management. It is disaster aftercare. And it is failing us.

The truth is that we know exactly when the early rains will arrive. The signs are there for all to see-the shifting wind patterns, the gathering clouds, the sudden stillness before the storm. We know which areas are most vulnerable. We know which types of buildings collapse and which trees fall. We have all the information we need. What we lack is action.

THE ROOT OF THE DESTRUCTION

To understand why windstorms cause such devastation, we must look not at the sky, but at the ground beneath our feet. The first problem is how we build. Across Southwest Nigeria, particularly in semi-urban and rural areas, the majority of homes are constructed without adherence to basic safety standards. Roofing sheets are fastened with too few nails. Walls and roofs are poorly connected. Aging buildings with rotting timber frames stand no chance against winds of eighty kilometres per hour. This is not a poverty problem-it is a knowledge and enforcement problem. A well-built mud house with properly fastened rafters will outlast a poorly constructed concrete block house every time.

The second problem is what we plant. Many of the trees that crash onto homes and cars during windstorms are either dead, decaying, or dangerously positioned. Some species, beautiful and fast-growing, have shallow root systems that offer little anchor against strong winds. Yet we continue to plant them next to buildings. We continue to neglect overhanging branches. We wait for the wind to prune our trees for us.

The third problem is how we warn ourselves. Our meteorological agencies issue forecasts and seasonal predictions. These reports reach airport control towers and international shipping companies. They rarely reach the average household in Ibadan, Akure, or Abeokuta. A weather warning that sits on a website in Abuja is useless to a family in Ogbomoso sitting under a corrugated iron roof. The information exists. The delivery system does not.

LESSONS FROM THE FIELD: WHAT WORKS

The good news is that effective solutions exist. They do not require sophisticated technology or foreign expertise. They require political will, inter-agency collaboration, and citizen engagement.

1. Early Warning Systems Must Be Functional and Accessible

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) issues seasonal climate predictions and regularly forecasts severe weather events. These forecasts reach airline pilots and international organisations. They rarely reach the average household in Ogbomoso, Ijebu-Jesa, or Ikare.

During the March 2020 Southwest windstorm event, meteorological indicators were present hours before the outbreak. Yet communities were caught unprepared. The gap is not in prediction-it is in dissemination. State governments must partner with NiMet to translate technical forecasts into local language alerts disseminated through community radio, town criers, religious centres, and mobile SMS platforms. A thunderstorm warning is useless if it sits on a website in Abuja while a family in Oyo State sits under a corrugated roof.

2. Construction Standards Save Lives

The most devastating impact of windstorms is not the wind itself, but the collapse of poorly constructed roofs and walls. Many affected homes, particularly in semi-urban and rural Southwest Nigeria, are built without adherence to basic structural standards. Roofing sheets are insufficiently nailed. Wall-to-roof connections are weak. Older buildings with decaying timber frames are particularly vulnerable. Local building control departments must be empowered to enforce minimum standards. This does not mean expensive housing. It means simple, enforceable rules: proper nailing schedules, the use of roof strapping, and regular inspections of public buildings and schools. Community-based masonry and carpentry training programmes can equip local builders with wind-resistant construction techniques.

3. Vegetation Management is Non-Negotiable

Uprooted trees falling on houses, vehicles, and power lines account for a significant proportion of windstorm casualties. Many of these trees are either decaying, shallow-rooted, or located dangerously close to structures. Local governments should conduct pre-rainy season vegetation audits. Dead or hazardous trees near roads and homes should be identified and removed. Residents must be encouraged to trim overhanging branches and avoid planting fast-growing but structurally weak tree species close to buildings.

4. Indigenous Knowledge Deserves Recognition

A 2025 study on disaster risk reduction in Osun State demonstrated that communities with consistent use of indigenous knowledge systems were significantly more effective at anticipating and mitigating disaster impacts. These techniques include observing changes in animal behaviour, reading cloud formations, and traditional early warning communication networks. Rather than dismissing these practices, disaster management agencies should document, validate, and integrate them into formal early warning frameworks. Science and tradition are not mutually exclusive.

5. Proactive, Not Reactive, Governance

The Federal Government’s launch of the Global Flood Disaster Management Project (GFDMP) in November 2025 represents a welcome shift toward proactive disaster management, emphasising advanced early warning, resilient infrastructure, and community participation. Similar frameworks must be extended specifically to windstorm risk in the Southwest. States like Sokoto, Kebbi, and Zamfara have demonstrated what proactive governance looks like: awareness campaigns, reactivation of response teams, clearance of drainage and waterways, stockpiling of relief materials beforethe rainy season, and multi-agency simulation exercises. Southwest states can and should replicate these measures.

A CALL TO GOVERNMENTS: BEYOND RELIEF MATERIALS

State governments across the Southwest must recognise that disaster management begins long before the emergency. It begins with building codes that are actually enforced. Every local government area should have functional building inspection units empowered to ensure that new constructions meet minimum wind resistance standards. This does not mean expensive housing. It means simple, enforceable rules: proper nailing schedules, roof strapping, and regular inspections of public buildings and schools.

It means vegetation audits conducted every January. Dead trees near roads and homes should be identified and removed before the winds arrive. Residents should be encouraged-and where necessary, compelled-to trim overhanging branches and avoid planting structurally weak species close to buildings.

It means early warning systems that actually warn people. State governments must partner with traditional institutions, religious centres, and community radio stations to translate technical forecasts into local language alerts. Town criers, mosque and church announcements, and bulk SMS platforms can reach millions within hours. But this requires coordination and political will.

WHAT EVERY HOUSEHOLD MUST DO NOW

While we await government action-and we must continue to demand it-there is much that families and communities can do to protect themselves. Preparedness is not expensive. Negligence is.

Before the storm season:

Walk around your home and look up. Are your roofing sheets rusted or loose? Are there nails that have popped out? A few hundred naira spent on roofing nails and a weekend of labour can save you millions in repairs.

Look at your trees. Are there dead branches hanging over your house? Is that beautiful apricot or mango tree leaning precariously? Cut it down. It is not worth a life.

Designate a safe room-preferably an interior room without windows or with protected openings. Keep a basic emergency kit there: torch, batteries, whistle, important documents in waterproof bags, basic medications.

Agree on a family communication plan. Where will you meet if you are separated? Who will pick up the children from school? How will you contact each other if phone networks are down?

When a storm warning is issued:

Take it seriously. Move vehicles to open areas away from trees. Secure or bring indoors all loose items-clotheslines, poultry cages, building materials, outdoor furniture. Stay indoors and away from windows. Unplug electrical appliances to protect against power surges. Do not wait until you see the clouds to begin preparing.

After the storm:

Report damage immediately to your local emergency management agency. Stay away from fallen power lines. Document damage with photographs for relief claims. Communities should establish mutual aid arrangements—cooperative societies, landlord associations, religious groups—to pool resources for rapid repairs.

A NEW NORMAL: TOWARD A RESILIENT SOUTHWEST

Climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense. The windstorms of today are not the windstorms of twenty years ago. We cannot rely on the coping strategies of our grandparents. We must adapt.

But adaptation does not require foreign expertise or billion-naira technology. It requires us to do the simple things consistently and well. It requires us to shift from a culture of reaction to a culture of prevention. It requires us to recognise that every roofing sheet nailed properly today is a roof that will stay on tomorrow.

The people of this country are resilient. We have to. But resilience should not mean learning to live with tragedy. It should mean learning to prevent it.

As we approach the 2026 rainy season, let us not wait for the winds to teach us the same lesson again. The science is clear: The clouds will gather. The temperature will drop. The solutions are known. The only missing ingredient is action. What happens next is up to us.

▪ Check your roof today.

▪ Trim your trees tomorrow.

▪ Prepare your family now.

▪ Do not wait for the wind.

Dr. R. B. Ibrahim (08104294271) is an Urban Infrastructure Development Planner, Climate Change Impact Analytics expert, writes on environmental risk of early rain windstorm. He is from the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.