By Dr. Rafiu Babatunde IBRAHIM
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) have issued a stark warning that should command the attention of every household, workplace, school, and government institution in this country. From November 2026 to March 2027, Nigeria will face a Super El Niño-a climate phenomenon of extraordinary intensity that will bring higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells, and a cascade of interconnected risks to health, food security, water availability, and public order. This is not a distant forecast or an academic exercise. It is a public health emergency in slow motion, and the time to act is now.
Understanding the Threat: What Is a Super El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, disrupting weather patterns across the globe . A “Super” El Niño occurs when those temperature anomalies exceed 2°C above average, significantly amplifying the disruption. This year’s event is projected to be particularly severe, with some models predicting anomalies exceeding 3°C—potentially rivaling or surpassing the historic events of 1997-98 and 2015-16.
For Nigeria, the implications are grave. The peak of the hot season is expected between January and March 2027, with January and February 2027 projected to be the hottest months, carrying the highest risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. NiMet has already confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño, warning of hotter-than-usual conditions and erratic rainfall across the region.
The Human Cost: Why Nigeria Is Uniquely Vulnerable
A University of Chicago-led study has projected that the coming Super El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat deaths globally by February 2027. Of these, nearly half-31,400 deaths-are projected to occur in Nigeria alone. This makes Nigeria the country most likely in the world to have the highest heat mortality under the Super El Niño.
The reasons are structural and deeply troubling. More than 60 per cent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025. Even homes with electricity face persistent power cuts, leaving millions without the means to run a fan, let alone an air conditioner. Many Nigerians depend on farming, leaving them exposed to droughts and poor harvests. The combination of extreme heat and limited cooling capacity is a deadly trap, and it is already closing around us.
The most vulnerable among us are older adults, children under five, pregnant women, and those with chronic health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory illness, and diabetes. Outdoor workers—farmers, construction workers, traders, and transport operators—face prolonged exposure as an occupational hazard. These are not abstract categories. They are our parents, our children, our neighbours, and the people who keep our markets and streets functioning.
The Risks Beyond Heat: A Multi-Hazard Crisis
The Super El Niño is not merely a heatwave. It is a multi-hazard event that will test every aspect of our national resilience.
1. Water scarcity and food insecurity are among the immediate threats. Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells will strain water sources for households, agriculture, and livestock. Crop failures will drive up food prices and threaten livelihoods, particularly in the northern and central regions where rainfall deficits have already been reported in parts of Borno, Yobe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bauchi, Gombe, and Plateau.
2. The coincidence with national events compounds the danger. The extreme heat will overlap with the school session, the 2027 general elections (January–February), Ramadan, and the Christian Lenten season (February–March). Fasting during Ramadan and Lent will be more challenging and potentially dangerous under extreme heat conditions. Election campaigns and polling activities will expose millions to prolonged sun exposure, raising the risk of heat-related illness and creating pressure points for public order and security.
3. Health system strain is inevitable. Hospitals should prepare for a surge in patients presenting with heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and exacerbated chronic conditions. The World Health Organisation (WHO)warns that heatstroke is a potentially fatal medical emergency requiring immediate attention, with symptoms including hot, dry skin, delirium, convulsions, or loss of consciousness.
The Way Out: What We Must Do Now
The good news, as the WHO emphasizes, is that the adverse health effects of hot weather are largely preventable through good public health practice and simple, effective steps. However, prevention requires action at every level—individual, household, community, institutional, and governmental.
For individuals and households:
1. Stay hydrated. Drink clean water regularly throughout the day, even if you do not feel thirsty. Avoid sugary, alcoholic, and caffeinated drinks, which can worsen dehydration.
2. Avoid the sun during peak hours. Limit outdoor activity between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m., when the sun is most intense. If you must go out, seek shade, wear light-coloured, loose-fitting clothing, and use hats or umbrellas.
3. Keep your home cool. Use night air to ventilate your home. During the day, close blinds or curtains and turn off unnecessary electrical devices to reduce indoor heat.
4. Check on the vulnerable. Regularly check on elderly relatives, neighbours living alone, and those with health conditions. They may need assistance on hot days.
5. Know the warning signs. Learn to recognize heat exhaustion (heavy sweating, weakness, headache, dizziness, nausea) and heatstroke (hot, dry skin, confusion, and loss of consciousness). Heatstroke requires immediate medical attention.
For farmers and livelihood protection:
NiMet advises farmers to adjust activities to cooler hours, conserve soil moisture through mulching, and monitor crop water requirements. NEMA recommends planting drought-resistant crops and adopting climate-smart farming practices. Livestock owners should provide sufficient drinking water, shade, and ventilation for their animals.
For schools and workplaces:
Schools must provide adequate drinking water, shade, and ventilation, and be alert for signs of heat exhaustion in pupils, including dizziness and nausea . Workplaces should ensure ventilation, provide water and shaded rest areas, and allow regular breaks during hot conditions.
For religious bodies:
Mosques and churches should provide shade, water, and first-aid support during Ramadan and Lent. Worshippers should stay hydrated during non-fasting hours and seek medical advice if they have underlying health conditions.
For government and institutions:
The responsibility is immense. NEMA and NiMet must sustain public awareness campaigns through official channels. State governments should activate heat-health action plans, establish cooling centres in vulnerable communities, and strengthen healthcare capacity. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies must provide shade, water, and medical support at campaign venues and polling units.
Beyond immediate response, Nigeria must invest in long-term resilience: tree planting and green infrastructure to reduce urban heat, protection of water sources, development of shaded public spaces, and incorporation of heat-risk management into all sectors’ operational plans.
A Call to Collective Responsibility
The Super El Niño is coming. It is not a question of “if” but “how prepared we are.” NEMA’s message is clear and urgent: “Be Aware, Take Precautions, Build Resilience. Together, we can reduce the risks and protect lives”.
This is not a matter for government alone. It is a matter for every Nigerian-every parent who ensures their children drink water before school, every employer who provides shade for outdoor workers, every religious leader who prepares their congregation for a difficult fast, every community that checks on its vulnerable members.
The heat is coming. Nevertheless, we are not helpless. With knowledge, preparation, and collective action, we can save lives. The time to act is now.
Dr. Rafiu Babatunde IBRAHIM (08104294271) writes on climate resilience, public health, and National Development. He is an Infrastructure Development Planner, Climate Change Impact Analytics expert; and he is based in Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria. He is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Osun State University Osogbo, Nigeria. [email protected]
